Bonjour! That constitutes 1/3 of the French that I know, the other 2/3 being the subject of today's blog post: Roland Garros. For me, the season's second major is the hardest to win, not just because of the grueling surface, but because of the sadistic schedule that the world's top players engage in as a lead-up to the tournament. Not even the U.S. Open, whose Emirates U.S. Open series garners ma**ive media attention here in the United States, can inflict this type of punishment on its participants even before the first ball is struck. And yet, even with that in mind, since the 2005 French Open, 16 men and 21 women have reached the semi-finals of the tournament; seem like a lot? When comparing that to the three other majors, these numbers are surprisingly consistent: the Australian Open saw 18 and 23 (men and women, respectively) since 2005 (with one more tournament played than the French), Wimbledon with 17 and 20, and the US Open had 15 and 21 reach the semi-final round. So while the early rounds will bring unexpected upsets, the later rounds will be reliably predictable match-ups where the winners, and not the competitors, will be the greatest speculations. Let's speculate, then, shall we?
Men's Singles
Finals prediction: (2) Novak Djokovic def. (1) Rafael Nadal in four sets.
My reasoning behind this was, I promise, calculated in part with actual statistics and quantifiable an*lytics in mind. But that's not what will induct Nole into the ever-exclusive (and quickly growing) pantheon of career Grand Slam champions: his indescribable desire to reach this pinnacle and snatch the #1 ranking back from Rafael Nadal will.
Watching Novak and Rafa during the 2014 Rome Masters has been extremely telling of their mindsets coming into Roland Garros. While neither of their journeys were smooth the whole way through, the end-match reactions of the two men separates them into two cla**es: insatiable hunger and weary repetition. Following his three-set victories over David Ferrer and Milos Raonic, Novak screamed, fist-pumped, and looked like a maniac eyeing a vulnerable victim. That victim? The untouchable Rafael Nadal, whose lone loss at the French Open came in the midst of personal struggles – a similar situation is speculated to be going on now, the causation for his shaky results during the clay-court season. Novak fully recognizes this as maybe his best opportunity to capture the French Open title, and his wanting the title will greatly overpower Rafa's distracted mind, level of play rendered irrelevant.